Why drivers pursued by the police keep driving given that the odds of escape are so slim
What are the chances of escape? A 1998 report listed a 83% success rate (Baltimore, measured 1995-6), and a 91% success rate (Miami-Dade, measured 1996) Alpert, Helicopters in Pursuit Operations, National Institute of Justice Research in Action, Aug 1998. A more comprehensive 2008 report lists "Suspect eludes the police" at 17.9% Police Pursuits in an Age of Innovation and Reform, The IACP Police Pursuit Database. Conclusion: the chances of escape are not great, but maybe not "slim".
Why flee?
- Something has triggered the fight-or-flight response to choose flight.
- The driver has a very short time horizon and isn't deterred by the possibility of capture later.
- They are up for "3 strikes" and the certainty of returning to prison makes the possibility of escape, even a slim one, attractive.
- There is a very high cost of returning to prison to avoid being killed by a gang (eg, for those who failed to help the gang while out of prison).
- They have incriminating evidence in the car and need time to dispose of it.
- They are showing off (common among gang members).
- There is a very low cost of returning to prison (because of gang support once inside), so there is little consequence for breaking laws trying to escape.
- They are in some alternate reality (drugs, alcohol, psychosis, acute crisis), or have limited cognitive abilities.
- For them, to give up prematurely is a sign of weakness.